When Life Gives You Tariffs… Make New Allies: Brazil, Europe and a New Trade Chapter

The Brazilian market has not been immune to the protectionist wave of «America First.» If such measures persist over time, they could have a lasting impact on the local economy. Still, a sour lemon can often become a sweet caipirinha in the resilient and optimistic spirit that characterizes both Brazilian society and its entrepreneurs.

As is often the case in the chessboard of global economic geopolitics, a move from one player creates room for another countermove. Brazil reacted with reciprocal trade measures, signaling clearly that it would not accept a position of commercial vulnerability.

This firmer stance — almost unthinkable in earlier years — strengthened Brazil’s image in Europe as a country ready to reposition itself with greater autonomy and pragmatism, opening new doors to international markets. In a world where global value chains are being restructured and reliable trade partners are in high demand, Brazil is increasingly seen not just as a supplier of raw materials, but as a strategic partner in critical industries.

The rapprochement with Europe has been further energized by progress in the Mercosur–European Union Agreement, whose negotiations spanned decades and now seem to be gaining momentum. While the United States embraces a more isolationist commercial posture, Europe is actively diversifying its trade relations — and Brazil, by demonstrating a commitment to clear rules, economic stability, and legal certainty, emerges as a natural candidate to fill that gap.

The Direct Impact of U.S. Tariffs

The trade measures introduced under President Trump primarily affected Brazilian producers of semi-finished steel and primary aluminum, with the removal of long-standing exemptions and quotas. In 2024, Brazil exported US$ 2.2 billion in semi-finished steel to the United States, representing nearly 60% of U.S. imports in that category. In the same year, Brazilian aluminum exports to the U.S. reached US$ 796 million, accounting for 14% of the sector’s total. Losses in exports for 2025 are estimated at around US$ 1.5 billion.

Brazil’s Response and a New Phase

In April 2025, the Brazilian Congress passed a new legal framework for trade retaliation, empowering the Executive Branch to adopt countermeasures in a faster and more technically structured way. The new legislation allows, for example, the automatic imposition of retaliatory tariffs on goods from countries that adopt unilateral measures incompatible with WTO norms; the suspension of tax or customs benefits previously granted under bilateral agreements; the creation of a list of priority sectors for trade defense and diversification of export markets.

Beyond the retaliation itself, the move marked a significant shift in posture: Brazil began positioning itself as an active player in global trade governance, aligning with mid-sized economies that advocate for predictable, balanced, and rules-based trade relations.

An Opportunity for Brazil–Europe Relations

This new stage sets Brazil as a reliable supplier to European industry — not only of raw materials but also of higher-value-added goods, particularly in processed foods, bioenergy, critical minerals, pharmaceuticals, and infrastructure.

Moreover, as US–China tensions drive European companies to seek nearshoring or “friend-shoring” strategies with more predictable partners, Brazil, with its clean energy matrix, large domestic market, and relatively stable institutions, emerges as a strong alternative.

Legal Implications and Strategic Recommendations

This changing landscape brings new opportunities for companies and legal advisors involved in Brazil–Europe investment and trade relations. Particular attention should be paid to:

• Monitoring rules of origin in the Mercosur–EU agreement, especially in sectors requiring supply chain restructuring;
• Reviewing contractual and tax structures for import/export operations, including clauses addressing tariff instability or non-tariff barriers (e.g., environmental or sanitary standards), and clearly defining force majeure events;
• Reassessing distribution and agency agreements in light of the new commercial environment;
• Exploring joint ventures and technology transfer arrangements with Brazilian partners, particularly in bioeconomy, green hydrogen, and mineral processing.

From lemon to caipirinha

The world is becoming more fragmented and competitive, but also more open to realignment. What began as a protectionist blow from the United States has revealed new opportunities for transatlantic cooperation. For Brazil, Europe is no longer just a client: it is poised to become a long-term strategic partner. It is now up to lawyers and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic to turn this opportunity into lasting, mutually beneficial relationships.